The Milwaukee Bucks (36-27) and the Indiana Pacers (35-28) are set to link up in an Eastern Conference tilt on Tuesday. The Bucks are looking to get back on track after dropping two straight games. The Cleveland Cavaliers beat Milwaukee 112-100 on Sunday. In the meantime, Indiana has lost three games in a row. On Monday, the Chicago Bulls topped the Pacers 121-103. Damian Lillard (groin) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) are probable for the Bucks. Tyrese Haliburton (hip) is questionable for Indiana.
Tipoff from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind., is at 7:30 p.m. ET. Milwaukee has won both matchups this season between the divisional rivals. The Bucks are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Bucks vs. Pacers odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 236.5. Milwaukee is at -137 on the money line (risk $137 to win $100), while Indiana is at +116 (risk $100 to win $116). Before locking in any Pacers vs. Bucks picks, make sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 21 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 148-107 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 19-10 (65%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Bucks vs. Pacers 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Bucks vs. Pacers:
Bucks vs. Pacers spread: Bucks -2.5 Bucks vs. Pacers over/under: 236.5 points Bucks vs. Pacers money line: Milwaukee -137, Indiana +116 MIL: Bucks are 30-33-1 against the spread this season IND: Pacers are 30-32-1 against the spread this season Bucks vs. Pacers picks: See picks at SportsLine Bucks vs. Pacers streaming: FuboTV (Try for free) fanduel logo rectangle Bet $5 Get $200 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins Claim bonus 21+ (18+ D.C.) and present in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL IN, KS (in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino), KY, LA (excluding certain perishes), MA, MD, MI, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, or WY. Void where prohibited. First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Data & text rates may apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).21+ (18+ D.C.) and present in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL IN, KS (in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino), KY, LA (excluding certain perishes), MA, MD, MI, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, or WY. Void where prohibited. First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Data & text rates may apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).21+ (18+ D.C.) and present in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL IN, KS (in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino), KY, LA (excluding certain perishes), MA, MD, MI, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, or WY. Void where prohibited. First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Data & text rates may apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Why the Bucks can cover Antetokounmpo finds ways to overpower opponent in the lane. He uses his length and speed to be effective, ranking second in the league in points (30.9), sixth in rebounds (12) and eighth in field-goal percentage (60.5%). He’s logged a double-double in three of his last four games. On March 8 against the Magic, Antetokounmpo had 37 points and 11 rebounds.
Lillard is a knockdown shooter on the perimeter with the court vision to set his teammates up. Lillard is 11th in the NBA in points (25.5) and ninth in assists (7.1) while shooting 37.8% from downtown. He’s tallied 22-plus points and at least five assists in four of his last five games. In the March 5 win over the Dallas Mavericks, Lillard had 34 points and five dimes. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Pacers can cover Forward Pascal Siakam can handle the rock and create his own shot with ease. He averages 20.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. He also shoots 52% from the field. Siakam has scored 30-plus points in two of his last six games. In the March 6 contest against the Hawks, the 30-year-old finished with 35 points and nine boards.
Guard Bennedict Mathurin is an athletic ball-handler and playmaker for Indiana. He puts up 16.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. Mathurin has 17 games with 20-plus points this campaign. On March 8 versus the Hawks, the Arizona product had 30 points, eight boards and five dimes. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Bucks vs. Pacers picks SportsLine’s model has simulated Bucks vs. Pacers and is leaning Under the total, projecting 232 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Bucks vs. Pacers on Tuesday, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Pacers spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
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Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga “plans to return to the lineup” when the Warriors host the Sacramento Kings on Thursday, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Tuesday. Kuminga has been sidelined since Jan. 4 with a sprained right ankle.
Golden State has won five straight games, 10 of its last 11 and 12 of its last 14. At 37-28, it’s sixth in the Western Conference, three games behind the fifth-place Houston Rockets with about a month left in the regular season. This is a much better position than the Warriors were in when Kuminga suffered the ankle injury, and he’ll be returning to a roster that looks significantly different, too.
How will Kuminga fit with Jimmy Butler? Where does he fit in the rotation? As of now, this is unclear, particularly because Kuminga does not command much respect as a spot-up shooter. Golden State coach Steve Kerr recently acknowledged that integrating him will be a challenge because the current group has been on a roll.
Warriors’ Stephen Curry surpasses 25K points, and here’s how high he could climb on the NBA’s all-time list Jack Maloney Warriors’ Stephen Curry surpasses 25K points, and here’s how high he could climb on the NBA’s all-time list “It’s a really difficult thing when you are playing really well and then you have a key guy coming back,” Kerr told reporters after the Warriors’ 115-110 win against the Detroit Pistons on Saturday. “It’s always tough. So I think the idea is just bring him along slowly, play him in short bursts, help him get his rhythm back. But we’ve gotta keep playing Gui Santos. We’ve gotta keep playing the guys who are helping us win right now. And so usually this stuff has to kind of play out, so we’ll hope that it plays out.”
Two weeks ago, Kerr told reporters that he’d sat down with Kuminga to watch film. They watched Kuminga’s own clips, and they watched clips of Butler. Kerr called Butler “the perfect guy for JK to emulate,” as Butler “just plays fundamental basketball” and “makes the simple play over and over again.”
Kerr has repeatedly said that Kuminga was playing the best basketball of his career leading up to the injury. That stretch included a pair of 34-point games in late December. The Warriors aren’t looking for him to pick up right where he left off, but to fit in to a team that has established a rhythm with Butler in the fold.
In 32 games this season, Kuminga, who will be a restricted free agent this summer, has averaged 16.8 points (on .459/.345/.639 shooting splits), 5.0 rebounds and 2.2 assists in 26 minutes per game. Down the stretch, he doesn’t need to maintain that scoring average, but ideally he’ll improve his efficiency.
We’ve got another exciting Western Conference contest on Tuesday’s NBA schedule as the Los Angeles Clippers will visit the New Orleans Pelicans. Los Angeles is 35-29 overall and 13-19 on the road, while New Orleans is 17-48 overall and 11-21 at home. The Pelicans have lost four in a row while the Clippers have won three straight. L.A. won their lone previous meeting of the season, but the Pelicans won six of the previous seven matchups. The Clippers are 33-30-1 against the spread (ATS) in the 2024-25 NBA season, while the Pelicans are 26-38-1 versus the number. Norman Powell (hamstring) and Ben Simmons (knee) are out for L.A., while Kelly Olynyk (rest) is out for New Orleans.
Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Smoothie King Arena in New Orleans, where the Pelicans are 11-21 this season. Los Angeles is favored by 7 points in the latest Pelicans vs. Clippers odds, according to the SportsLine consensus. The over/under is 222.5 points. Los Angeles is at -288 on the money line (risk $288 to win $100), while New Orleans is at +232 (risk $100 to win $232). Before entering any Clippers vs. Pelicans picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 21 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 148-107 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 19-10 (65%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Los Angeles vs. New Orleans. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Clippers vs. Pelicans:
Pelicans vs. Clippers spread: Clippers -7 Pelicans vs. Clippers over/under: 222.5 points Pelicans vs. Clippers money line: Clippers -288, Pelicans +233 Pelicans vs. Clippers picks: See picks at SportsLine Pelicans vs. Clippers streaming: FuboTV (Try for free) Why the Clippers can cover Los Angeles has won three straight games outright, covering in two of those, while the Pelicans have hit a skid versus the spread. New Orleans is just 1-5 ATS over its last six outings and is 19-28-1 versus the line as an underdog this season, which is the worst underdog spread record in the Western Conference. Outside of spread success, Los Angeles has a major advantage on the defensive side of the ball, ranking fourth in the league in both points allowed per game and defensive rating, while New Orleans ranks in the bottom five of both categories.
The Pels allow the second-highest field goal percentage in the NBA, and they also give up the second-most made 3-pointers per game. Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ offense is discernibly better with Kawhi Leonard on the court, and the two-time NBA Finals MVP isn’t listed on Tuesday’s injury report. He is one of six healthy Clippers averaging in double-figures, with the team receiving a boost from new acquisition, Bogdan Bogdanovic, who is knocking down 43.2% of his 3-pointers over the last seven games. See which team to pick here.
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The Pelicans will roll out three 20-point scorers with Williamson (24.8), Murphy (21.8) and CJ McCollum (21.4). They can carry the offense, while New Orleans is one of the most active teams defensively as they are one of three squads in the league ranking in the top seven in both steals per game and blocks per game. The Pelicans can take advantage of a Clippers team which can get sloppy on the offensive end as L.A. commits the 10th-most turnovers per game, with James Harden averaging the most turnovers per 100 possessions (6.4) in the NBA. See which team to pick here.
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So who wins Clippers vs. Pelicans, and which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Pelicans vs. Clippers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 148-107 roll on top-rated NBA picks since last season, and find out.
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It was a solid Week 2 for me — at least against the spread.
You would think I’d be better picking the games straight up, but that wasn’t the case last week. I went 7-9 straight up for a 17-15 overall record and I was 9-6-1 ATS for a 17-12-3 record. I will make my usual claim of the right pick-wrong-result gripe with the Giants. If they have a kicker, they beat the Commanders and I have another victory.
Ah, heck with it. On to this week.
There are four teams playing consecutive road games this week, which is always a challenge. Keep that in mind when picking your games.
Some of the supposed power teams, like the 49ers, Ravens and Cowboys, have to get back on track this week. One of them will be a winner — unless there is a tie — since the Ravens play at Dallas against the Cowboys in one of the marquee games.
The Ravens are 0-2 and Dallas is 1-1. The loser has major issues.
Desperation can be key in the NFL. See Atlanta Monday night as they beat the Eagles on the road as a big dog. The Ravens appear to be the more desperate team against the Cowboys since they are without a victory. So what’s the pick? Read on for all of them.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6.5) Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
This is a game featuring two 1-1 teams with the Jets playing at home for the first time this season. The Jets offense showed some life in the second half last week against the Titans. That could carry over against a Pats defense that gave up a lot of big plays last week. I also look for a better showing by the Jets defense. Jets take it, but the Pats hang around.
Pick: Jets 20, Pats 16
Bonus: Emory Hunt is also leaning Under 38.5 in this game, and he’s on an 18-5 run on picks in Patriots games. Check out which side he’s taking against the spread at SportsLine.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6.5) Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Giants are playing consecutive road games and they are facing a good defense with a suspect offense. That’s never a good thing. The Browns won behind that defense last week at Jacksonville and should find a way to limit this Giants offense this week. Browns take it.
Pick: Browns 21, Giants 10
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bears are on the road for a second straight week and they are facing a desperate 0-2 team. The Colts have been gashed in the run game the past few weeks, which could mean a lot of D’Andre Swift. Both Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams have to play better, but this is a tough spot for Richardson. Even so, I think he plays the better of the two.
Pick: Colts 23, Bears 20
Houston Texans (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a big game between two undefeated teams. The Vikings are a surprise team, while the Texans were expected to be good. The Minnesota defense has been really good. They will throw a ton of looks at C.J. Stroud. I think that will be the difference in the game. They will force a turnover and get a lot of pressure. The Vikings win a close one.
Pick: Vikings 24, Texans 21
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-1.5) Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Eagles should be rolling in at 2-0, but coach Nick Sirianni cost them Monday’s game with the Falcons with a bad decision late. The biggest problem, though, is the defense. They have been awful against the run, while the Saints have been good running it. Look for the Saints to get to 3-0 behind their run game.
Pick: Saints 27, Eagles 20
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model also likes the Saints to cover as part of its best five-team parlay for Week 3. See the model’s entire Week 3 NFL parlay at SportsLine.
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a game featuring two 2-0 teams, both with physical styles that will show up each and every Sunday. The Steelers have the better defense, but the Chargers are better on offense with Justin Herbert. They are playing consecutive road games, but it won’t matter. They win it on the road.
Pick: Chargers 21, Steelers 17
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Bucs are riding high, while the Broncos are having major offensive issues with Bo Nix. The Tampa Bay defense is playing well, even undermanned, which will carry over here. Baker Mayfield will also play well. The Bucs keep rolling.
Pick: Bucs 26, Broncos 13
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-3) Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Will Levis has made two bonehead plays in their two games to keep the Titans from a victory. He has to be better. For the Packers, this will again likely be Malik Willis at quarterback against his former team. Willis was solid last week, but it was the run game that helped Green Bay beat the Colts. That will be tougher here against a good Titans defense. Look for a defensive battle won by the Titans.
Pick: Titans 21, Packers 17
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Andy Dalton is in as the starter for the benched Bryce Young for the Panthers. He can’t be any worse, but this is a good Raiders defense. Gardner Minshew has played well, especially last week. The Raiders will win this behind the defense and Minshew to get to 2-1.
Pick: Raiders 24, Panthers 10
Bonus: SportsLine’s R.J. White identified the Seahawks and Texans as good pivots in NFL survivor pools away from consensus favorites that lost in the first two weeks. He’s staying away from the Raiders, but see which survivor picks he likes at SportsLine.
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-5) Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a tough first start for Skylar Thompson in place of Tua Tagovailoa. Seattle is as tough as it gets for a road venue and the Seahawks are playing well. The Seattle offense has looked good in two games, which will continue here. Look for a big game from Geno Smith. Seahawks go to 3-0.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Dolphins 16
Detroit Lions (-3) at Arizona Cardinals Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Lions are out on the road for the first time, while the Cardinals are coming off an impressive home victory over the Rams. Arizona was outstanding on offense with Kyler Murray, which will stress the Lions defense. Look for Arizona to win a shootout that could get each team into the 30s.
Pick: Cardinals 31, Lions 29
Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Dallas Cowboys Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This game has lost some luster with the Ravens at 0-2 and the Cowboys getting blown out last week. Both teams have issues, but the biggest is the Ravens offensive line. After watching what the Saints did to the Dallas defense, they will overcome that and run Derrick Henry. The Ravens will get their first victory on the road against the Cowboys.
Pick: Ravens 27, Cowboys 24
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The 49ers are playing a second straight road game after losing to the Vikings, while the Rams are playing their home opener. That’s a tough combination. Both teams are hurting with top stars out of the lineup. The 49ers are deeper and that will show up. They take it behind a good game from Brock Purdy.
Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 18
Bonus: SportsLine’s AI PickBot has identified A-grade picks on both the spread and total for this game, with its total play the best on the entire slate. See every AI PickBot projection for Week 3 at SportsLine.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Atlanta Falcons Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Falcons are playing on a short week after beating the Eagles with a last-minute touchdown. The Atlanta offense was much improved from Week One, which is a good thing. The Chiefs looked sluggish on offense against the Bengals, but they will get it gong here. Their speed shows up on the fast track.
Pick: Chiefs 32, Falcons 23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
The Bills are playing with a lot of rest, while the 0-2 Jaguars are coming off two close losses. That’s a big edge for the Bills, as is a home Monday night game. But the biggest edge is their defense against the Jacksonville offense, which is struggling. The Bills keep rolling.
Pick: Bills 28, Jaguars 17
Bonus: SportsLine’s hottest NFL expert Jason La Canfora made this game part of his early best bets, out every Monday morning at SportsLine. See the rest of his early Week 3 plays here.
Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-8) Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)
The Commanders won for the first time last week, while the Bengals are still searching for their first one. They played well at Kansas City and probably should have won the game. That will continue here as they play much better and get the best of the Commanders with Joe Burrow having a big game.
I don’t usually rush to judgment about any teams after watching them play just two games, but guys, I’ll be honest, I don’t think the Panthers are going to make the playoffs this year, and I’m not even completely convinced they’re going to win a game this season.
Apparently, their head coach agrees with me, because he has decided to BENCH BRYCE YOUNG in favor of Andy Dalton. That’s right, the Panthers are now trying to save their season by turning to Andrew Gregory Dalton. Normally, I would laugh at the thought of that, but Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith are a combined 10-0 so far this year, so I’m not going to laugh at that or anything ever again. The way this season is going, there’s a 40% chance we’re going to get Dalton vs. Gardner Minshew in the Super Bowl.
Speaking of those two, they’ll actually be facing each other this week. So who will I be taking? Let’s get to the picks and find out.
NFL Week 3 Picks Green Bay (1-1) at Tennessee (0-2) 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
It’s finally happening: The Malik Willis revenge game is here. Although I’m not sure we should call this a revenge game because the Titans actually did Willis a favor by trading him to a better team. This would be like if your spouse filed for divorce, but found you a Brazilian supermodel to date after the divorce was finalized.
Willis was drafted by the Titans in 2022, but only ended up starting three games for them over two seasons. The Titans ended up giving the starting QB job to Will Levis, which has been a roller coaster ride so far, but in this case, the roller coaster has no brakes, is headed for a brick wall and the seat belts don’t work.
The Titans are 0-2 this season, but they could be 2-0 if they didn’t make the same exact mistakes every week. In Week 1, they blew a 17-3 lead to the Bears, and a big reason is because Levis threw arguably one of the worst pick sixes of all time.
BEARS PICK-6 FOR THE LEAD!
📺: #TENvsCHI on FOX 📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/cbCpZsZh1b
— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024 Yikes.
The Titans also gave up a blocked punt in that game that the Bears returned for a touchdown.
Surely, they learned something from Week 1 and wouldn’t let those SAME EXACT THINGS happen in Week 2, right? RIGHT? Wrong. In Week 2, Levis drove the Titans down to the Jets’ six-yard line and then proceeded to make another inexplicably bad mistake.
Levis flips it backwards and its a Jets fumble recovery!
📺: #NYJvsTEN on CBS/Paramount+ 📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/nZ38jEOfOo
— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024 Let’s see how Titans coach Brian Callahan felt about that fumble.
brian callahan is all of us watching will levis pic.twitter.com/SpX0gWekag
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) September 15, 2024 I’m not a lip-reader, but I think I definitely saw at least one F-bomb in there.
As if that’s not bad enough, the Titans also gave up ANOTHER blocked punt in Week 2. So if you’re scoring at home, the Titans are literally 0-2 because Levis is responsible for two of the worst turnovers of the season and they can’t protect their punter.
If the Titans can go a week without giving up a blocked punt and if Levis can go a week without making a dumb turnover, I actually think they can win this game. The Titans defense does a pretty solid job of stopping the run and it won’t be surprising if they go all in on that, which will put the game in the hands of Willis.
Although I keep mentioning Willis, there does seem to be a small chance that Jordan Love could play on Sunday. I don’t think he will, but I’ll still be making two picks this week with one accounting for Love playing and the other assuming that Willis plays. And since the final score of every Titans game this season has been 24-17, I’ll just go ahead and assume that will be the final score this week no matter who starts at quarterback for the Packers.
The pick: Titans 24-17 over Packers (If Jordan Love doesn’t play) The pick: Packers 24-17 over Titans (If Jordan Love does play)
L.A. Chargers (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-0) 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Out of all the games in Week 3, this one intrigues me the most, and that’s mostly because I still have no idea what to make of either team. The thing about the Steelers is that I’m still not exactly sure how good they are this year. Yes, they’re 2-0, but they have one of the worst offenses in the NFL — they’ve only scored one touchdown all season — and their defense has beaten up on a rookie QB (Bo Nix) and a hobbled quarterback (Kirk Cousins) who was forced to run an offense that he has no idea how to run (Cousins prefers to play under center, but he only took ONE snap under center against the Steelers).
On the other hand, you have the Chargers, who have gone full Jim Harbaugh (You should never go full Jim Harbaugh). Before the season started, the Chargers decided they were going to rip up last year’s playbook and implement a new playbook that would call for more running and less Justin Herbert. Usually, when you have one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, you don’t design an offense that calls for him to be used less, but the Chargers have done exactly that, and IT’S ACTUALLY WORKING. The Chargers rushing attack has carried them to a 2-0 record.
There are only five teams in the NFL that are averaging less than 135 passing yards per game through two weeks and both of these teams are on that list. We might only see eight passes thrown in this entire game by both teams combined.
One other thing these two teams have in common is that they’ve had two of the best defenses through the first two weeks. The Steelers are giving up just eight points per game, which ranks second in the NFL, behind only … yup, you guessed it: The Chargers (Los Angeles is only surrendering 6.5 points per game).
Part of me wants to predict that the final score in this game is 8 to 6.5, because if any two teams can figure out how to make that happen, it’s these two.
Both of these teams win by running the ball, but both of their defenses can stop the run, so for me, that means this comes down to the team that has the better quarterback. I have no idea who the Steelers will be throwing out there this week, but I’ll take Justin Herbert no matter what. The Chargers QB has a career record of 18-0 when his defense surrenders under 20 points (19 or less), and I think we’ll see that impressive streak continue on Sunday.
The pick: Chargers 17-13 over Steelers
Which picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see underdogs should you lock in now? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.
Philadelphia (1-1) at New Orleans (2-0) 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Guys, I’m going to have to admit it, I think I might have been wrong about the Saints this year. After they beat the Panthers in Week 1, I wasn’t impressed, because everyone beats the Panthers. Heading into Week 2, I thought they were going to get a reality check against the Cowboys, but apparently, the Saints don’t do reality checks. Instead, they’ve created an alternate reality where they’re the best team in the NFL and that’s the reality we now all live in.
Last week, I said that if Derek Carr was an actual car that he’d be a 1989 Plymouth Sundance, but it turns out he’s actually closer to a McClaren and the Saints entire offense runs like a Bugatti.
Through two weeks, the Saints are on a historical scoring pace: They’ve totaled 91 points, which is the fourth most in NFL history through the first two games of a season. They’re also just the fifth team in NFL history to score 44 points or more in three straight games (They scored 48 in their 2023 season finale). Their offense has basically been unstoppable: They’ve scored on 76% of their drives this season (16 of 21), which is an absurd rate (It’s the highest scoring rate by any team in the NFL since at least 2000, surpassing teams like the 2006 Colts and 2007 Patriots).
Basically, the Saints offense is firing on all cylinders, which is something you don’t usually see this early in the season. Most teams are usually still trying to work off the rust from the preseason, but in the Saints’ new alternate reality that we all live, rust doesn’t exist, at least not for them.
The Saints offense has been clicking because Carr has been on fire and because Alvin Kamara has been unstoppable. When you’re facing an offense like this, it’s nice to have some time to prepare, but the Eagles won’t have that. They have to travel to New Orleans on a short week after losing on Monday night and Philly will be bringing a defense that’s surrendering nearly 400 yards per game. When your defense is that playing that badly, the Saints are the last team you want to be facing.
The pick: Saints 34-24 over Eagles
Houston (2-0) at Minnesota (2-0) 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
I don’t know what the Texans offensive game plan is going to look like this week, but I have a feeling that Stefon Diggs is going to try and make sure that he’s a big part of it. Diggs started his career with the Vikings and this game will mark the first time that he’s played in Minnesota as a member of the opposing team.
Diggs was with the Vikings from 2015 thru 2019 before he forced a trade to Buffalo. He was then with the Bills from 2020 thru 2023 before he forced a trade to the Texans, and I have a feeling that if he doesn’t get 20 passes thrown his way this week, he might force a trade out of Houston.
The good news for Diggs is that he might actually be able to have a big week, and that’s mostly because the Vikings defense won’t be focused on him. The Vikings are going to be way more concerned with Nico Collins, who leads the NFL in receiving yards through two weeks with 126 yards per game (Diggs is averaging just 35 yards per game).
Diggs wanted out of Buffalo because he apparently wasn’t happy about his role in the offense, even though he led the team in targets last season. Now, he’s stuck in a offense where he almost certainly won’t be getting the most targets. That being said, the last time Diggs faced the Vikings came in 2022 and he caught 12 passes for 128 yards. I don’t think we’ll see that kind of production from him on Sunday, but he might get close, especially if he spends the entire game yelling at C.J. Stroud to throw him the ball on every play.
As for the Vikings, after beating the 49ers in Week 2, they’ve proven that they can play with anyone in the league. However, they needed a blocked punt, two second-half turnovers and a 97-yard touchdown from Justin Jefferson to beat San Francisco by just six points. They’re likely not going to have that many things go their way this week, so I’m going to have to take the Texans.
The pick: Texans 24-16 over Vikings
Baltimore (0-2) at Dallas (1-1) 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
It’s almost fitting that the Ravens and Cowboys are playing each other this week because I’m pretty sure they had the two most shocking losses of Week 2, and the losses were shocking in very different ways. The Ravens blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter at home, which I guess isn’t actually all that shocking since no one is better than the Ravens at blowing big fourth-quarter leads.
Sunday’s 26-23 loss to Raiders marks the Ravens’ fourth loss after leading by double digits in the fourth quarter since 2022.
This ties the Bears for the most in the NFL in that span, according to @ESPNStatsInfo.
More from Baltimore: https://t.co/F37uT4TLQm
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) September 15, 2024 As for the Cowboys, they got run out of their own stadium in a game where their defense forgot how to play defense. The biggest problem for the Cowboys heading into Week 3 is that they’ve struggled to stop the run. Through two weeks, they’re surrendering an average of 141.5 yards per game on the ground, and now, they have to go up against a Ravens team that ranks seventh in the NFL in in rushing with 168 yards per game.
Although the Cowboys can’t stop the run, the Ravens defense is also having its own issues. Through two weeks, the Ravens have given up the MOST passing yards in the NFL. Dak Prescott might throw the ball 71 times on Sunday. I have a feeling he’s really going to be earning his pay check this week and when you’re making $60 million per year, you have to do a lot to earn your pay check, so I expect Dak to have a big game.
With both defenses struggling, I think what this means is that we’re going to get a good old-fashioned shootout, and as someone who loves a good old-fashioned anything, I’m fully expecting this to be the most exciting game of the week. I won’t be surprised if this game comes down to a field goal, which means I’m going to take the team with the better kicker, and right now, I think Brandon Aubrey is better than Justin Tucker.
The pick: Cowboys 30-27 over Ravens
NFL Week 3 picks: All the rest Jets 20-17 over Patriots Raiders 20-17 over Panthers Browns 24-13 over Giants Bears 19-16 over Colts Buccaneers 23-13 over Broncos Seahawks 27-13 over Dolphins 49ers 27-17 over Rams Lions 30-27 over Cardinals Chiefs 31-20 over Falcons Bills 30-20 over Jaguars Bengals 24-17 over Commanders
Last Week Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Steelers would beat the Broncos by seven points, and guess what happened? The Steelers beat the Broncos by exactly seven points. When you have a rookie quarterback going up against a Mike Tomlin defense, the prediction almost writes itself. So how did things go for Bo Nix against the Steelers? Glad you asked.
Bo Nix just got sacked by TJ Watt’s aura pic.twitter.com/QJGl7Lzn23
— Eric (@proptologydept) September 15, 2024 As you can see, Nix got sacked by T.J. Watt’s shadow. I haven’t seen a shadow beat up anyone like that since last month when I watched the preview for the new Sonic movie.
They captured everything here that makes Shadow a force to be reckoned with. Straight up comes in and bodies everyone with zero effort. He looks so badass.
Keanu is utterly slaying it! Couldn’t have been a more better casting choice for Sonic Movie 3!
December is gonna be lit! pic.twitter.com/s8HTqITpPZ
— RamblingGuy89 (@RamblingGuy89) August 27, 2024 Am I sucking up to my Paramount bosses by mentioning a Paramount movie? Maybe, but that’s none of your business. Let’s move on.
Worst pick: My worst pick last week was every pick I made. My picks were so bad that I printed out my Week 2 picks and set them on fire so that I never have to think about them again. I went 7-8-1 against the spread, which was good compared to my horrid straight-up picks. I went 4-12 straight-up and I’m putting all the blame for that on cats. I picked three cat teams to win in Week 2 — Bengals, Jaguars and Lions — and they all lost by five points or less. This is why you should never pick cat teams to win. I now hate cats.
I also blame the Giants for not dressing a healthy kicker. I picked the Giants to beat the Commanders and instead of winning, they went out and made NFL history, but not the kind of history you want to make.
The #Giants became the first team in NFL history to score 3+ TD, allow no TD — and lose in regulation.
Incredible.
— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) September 15, 2024 I also blame the Ravens for blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Raiders and the Patriots for missing a field goal with four minutes left to play that would have put them in a great spot to upset the Seahawks. I also blame the Colts for not being able to stop the run against a team that was starting a backup quarterback.
I think what I’m trying to say here is that pretty much EVERY ONE-SCORE GAME WENT AGAINST ME IN WEEK 2. HOW IS THAT EVEN STATISTICALLY POSSIBLE?
Basically, I should have gone 12-4 and that’s what I’m going to tell myself I did as I cry myself to sleep tonight.
The New York Jets have won back-to-back games against the New England Patriots for the first time since the 2008-2009 seasons following their 24-3 victory on Thursday: it’s truly the end of an era in New England.
Not many Jets fans would have thought that this would have occurred even a year ago after Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1 last season. We are now in a bold, new world.
Speaking of bold, what surprising or stunning things could go down in Week 3? Come on down and take a gander at five bold predication’s for the remainder of Week 3.
However, the Chiefs are vulnerable. They are one of just two teams in the NFL to have a 2-0 record while trailing in each game along with the Seattle Seahawks. Kansas City is actually in a league of their own when it comes to teetering on the edge of defeat after narrow wins against the Ravens (by a toe) and the Bengals (end of game field goal).
They’re the only 2-0 team with a negative turnover margin (-2) They’re the only 2-0 team that’s been outgained in both games They have the smallest scoring margin of any 2-0 team (+8) Two of the Chiefs’ top playmakers also have serious issues or struggled. Running back Isiah Pacheco suffered fractured fibula in Week 2 against the Bengals, and future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce totaled only one catch for 5 yards against Cincy — his fewest catches in a game since Week 1 of the 2018 season at the Chargers.
Their defense is also not ideally equipped to face the Falcons’ top playmaker in running back Bijan Robinson, the first Atlanta running back with 100 or more scrimmage yards in each of the first two games of a season since Michael “The Burner” Turner in 2011. Robinson’s 5.7 yards per touch this season are the third-most in the NFL among the 12 players with 40 touches so far in 2024.
The Chiefs are slightly below average in run defense, allowing 129.5 rushing yards per game — 18th in the NFL. They’re also allowing 4.8 yards per carry, 21st in the NFL. Robinson runs wild, opening up the offense for Kirk Cousins and Co. while keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. Falcons knock of the champs in Atlanta on Sunday night.
Minnesota Vikings upset C.J. Stroud, Texans in battle of unbeatens player headshot team logo Jonathan Greenard MIN • LB • #58 View Profile Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is balling out. His 270.7 passing yards per game in his young career rank as the sixth-most in NFL history. Since his rookie year in 2023, Stroud has been elite at throwing the football deep downfield, ranking third in the league in yards per pass attempt (8.1), and second in air yards per pass attempt (8.8). Stroud’s 43 completions of 25 or more yards since entering the NFL last year are tied for the second-most in football with Jordan Love, trailing only Brock Purdy’s 51.
In order to make deep throws, you need time to throw. That’s evidence by Stroud’s 3.03 seconds average time to throw, the ninth-longest in the NFL. He has been sacked seven times in 2024 as a result, tied for the sixth-most in the NFL.
That’s not ideal as he and the 2-0 Texans hit the road to play the 2-0 Minnesota Vikings, the NFL’s early leader in sacks (11), quarterback hits (19) and co-league leader in quarterback pressures (36) this season. Their 11 sacks are the most through two games in team history, and they are up 6.6% in their quarterback pressure rate from last year (32.1%) to this year (38.7%), the third-largest increase in pressure rate in the NFL. Wildly, this positive shift is occurring despite the second-largest decline in the NFL in blitz rate from an NFL-most 50.7% to 33.3% in 2024, the sixth-most in the league.
So what’s the change? They drafted Alabama All-America edge rusher Dallas Turner 17th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, and they signed Houston Texans 2023 sacks leader Jonathan Greenard (12.5) and veteran edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel (two sacks and one pick six in 2024) after the departure of four-time Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter to the Texans in free agency. Sam Darnold’s improved play buoyed by quality offensive line play, Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones and 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson are enough as the Vikings defense overruns the Texans’ offensive line.
Raiders defense no match for Andy Dalton-led Panthers player headshot team logo Andy Dalton CAR • QB • #14 View Profile It’s been a rough go for the Carolina Panthers. They went an NFL-worst 2-15 in 2023, but they didn’t have the 2024 NFL Draft’s first overall pick because they traded the rights for that pick away to the Chicago Bears a year ago to select Alabama Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Bryce Young first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft.
It may be early, but it’s clear it was the wrong move with Stroud still on the board. How bad was Young’s start to life in the NFL? Well, he averaged the third-fewest passing yards per attempt (5.4) in NFL history (minimum 500 pass attempts) and the second-worst touchdown pass rate (1.9%) in NFL history (minimum 500 pass attempts).
This week, the Panthers face a hard-nosed Las Vegas Raiders defense built in the image of coach Antonio Pierce, a Super Bowl-winning inside linebacker with the New York Giants. They have allowed only 17.2 points per game since Pierce took over prior to Week 9 last season, and that is the second-fewest in the NFL in that span, trailing only the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 16.1 points per game during that time.
However, the Panthers are going to beat them. Why? Simply because of the upgrade their offense will receive going from one of the worst statistical quarterbacks in NFL history to 36-year-old, steady veteran Andy Dalton, a three-time Pro Bowler in his hey day with the Cincinnati Bengals. Dalton is quietly the Bengals’ all-time leader in passing touchdowns with 204 from 2011 to 2019. He will be making his second start as a Panther, and he threw for 361 yards in his sole start with Carolina in Week 3 at the Seahawks last season.
Young’s career high is 312 pass yards and his the only 300-yard passing game of his career. It’s also the only game of his career with 250 or more passing yards. That day back in Week 3 last year, wide receiver Adam Thielen caught 11 of Dalton’s 33 completions (33.3%) and totaled 145 receiving yards. That is more than any Panthers receiver had in any of Young’s starts last season.
The upgrade from Young to Dalton will shock the Raiders as the Panthers win their first game of the season.
The Bengals can be the first team in NFL history to finish with a winning record after an 0-2 start in three straight seasons. In 2022, they became the first of two teams (also the 2023 Houston Texans) since the NFL expanded the playoff field to 14 in 2020 to reach the postseason after starting 0-2. Yes, they are favored to beat the Washington Commanders on Monday. This is an exception of a bold prediction in that it isn’t only about Week 3. Cincy wins its first game of the season en route to another winning season and a playoff appearance, making NFL history in the process.
Wide receiver Quentin Johnston’s rookie season in 2023, after being the 21st overall pick in the draft, was a struggle. He only had two receiving touchdowns the entire year as he struggled to find a role in former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s offense. The 2024 season has already been a massive improvement since he had two receiving touchdowns last week at the Panthers.
Quentin Johnston winning, stacking and then attacking the ball in the air to HBO for Justin Herbert? He helped a brother out on a non perfect throw. THIS is what this Chargers offense NEEDS from him consistently. pic.twitter.com/aBnoWM45AT
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) September 15, 2024 On Sunday, he catches his third touchdown of 2024 for a career high in a season against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the second-best scoring defense in 2024 (eight points per game allowed). Here’s a breakdown of why the Chargers offense has the edge.
