2025 NBA picks, March 11 best bets from proven model

The Milwaukee Bucks (36-27) and the Indiana Pacers (35-28) are set to link up in an Eastern Conference tilt on Tuesday. The Bucks are looking to get back on track after dropping two straight games. The Cleveland Cavaliers beat Milwaukee 112-100 on Sunday. In the meantime, Indiana has lost three games in a row. On Monday, the Chicago Bulls topped the Pacers 121-103. Damian Lillard (groin) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) are probable for the Bucks. Tyrese Haliburton (hip) is questionable for Indiana.

Tipoff from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind., is at 7:30 p.m. ET. Milwaukee has won both matchups this season between the divisional rivals. The Bucks are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Bucks vs. Pacers odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 236.5. Milwaukee is at -137 on the money line (risk $137 to win $100), while Indiana is at +116 (risk $100 to win $116). Before locking in any Pacers vs. Bucks picks, make sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 21 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 148-107 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 19-10 (65%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has simulated Bucks vs. Pacers 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Bucks vs. Pacers:

Bucks vs. Pacers spread: Bucks -2.5
Bucks vs. Pacers over/under: 236.5 points
Bucks vs. Pacers money line: Milwaukee -137, Indiana +116
MIL: Bucks are 30-33-1 against the spread this season
IND: Pacers are 30-32-1 against the spread this season
Bucks vs. Pacers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Bucks vs. Pacers streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
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Why the Bucks can cover
Antetokounmpo finds ways to overpower opponent in the lane. He uses his length and speed to be effective, ranking second in the league in points (30.9), sixth in rebounds (12) and eighth in field-goal percentage (60.5%). He’s logged a double-double in three of his last four games. On March 8 against the Magic, Antetokounmpo had 37 points and 11 rebounds.

Lillard is a knockdown shooter on the perimeter with the court vision to set his teammates up. Lillard is 11th in the NBA in points (25.5) and ninth in assists (7.1) while shooting 37.8% from downtown. He’s tallied 22-plus points and at least five assists in four of his last five games. In the March 5 win over the Dallas Mavericks, Lillard had 34 points and five dimes. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Pacers can cover
Forward Pascal Siakam can handle the rock and create his own shot with ease. He averages 20.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. He also shoots 52% from the field. Siakam has scored 30-plus points in two of his last six games. In the March 6 contest against the Hawks, the 30-year-old finished with 35 points and nine boards.

Guard Bennedict Mathurin is an athletic ball-handler and playmaker for Indiana. He puts up 16.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. Mathurin has 17 games with 20-plus points this campaign. On March 8 versus the Hawks, the Arizona product had 30 points, eight boards and five dimes. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Bucks vs. Pacers picks
SportsLine’s model has simulated Bucks vs. Pacers and is leaning Under the total, projecting 232 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks.

So who wins Bucks vs. Pacers on Tuesday, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Pacers spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.

Where to bet on NBA games
Here are some of the sportsbooks to bet on NBA games today, along with the various NBA sportsbook promos they currently offer.

Warriors forward plans to return Thursday vs. Kings, per report

Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga “plans to return to the lineup” when the Warriors host the Sacramento Kings on Thursday, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Tuesday. Kuminga has been sidelined since Jan. 4 with a sprained right ankle.

Golden State has won five straight games, 10 of its last 11 and 12 of its last 14. At 37-28, it’s sixth in the Western Conference, three games behind the fifth-place Houston Rockets with about a month left in the regular season. This is a much better position than the Warriors were in when Kuminga suffered the ankle injury, and he’ll be returning to a roster that looks significantly different, too.

How will Kuminga fit with Jimmy Butler? Where does he fit in the rotation? As of now, this is unclear, particularly because Kuminga does not command much respect as a spot-up shooter. Golden State coach Steve Kerr recently acknowledged that integrating him will be a challenge because the current group has been on a roll.

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Warriors’ Stephen Curry surpasses 25K points, and here’s how high he could climb on the NBA’s all-time list
“It’s a really difficult thing when you are playing really well and then you have a key guy coming back,” Kerr told reporters after the Warriors’ 115-110 win against the Detroit Pistons on Saturday. “It’s always tough. So I think the idea is just bring him along slowly, play him in short bursts, help him get his rhythm back. But we’ve gotta keep playing Gui Santos. We’ve gotta keep playing the guys who are helping us win right now. And so usually this stuff has to kind of play out, so we’ll hope that it plays out.”

Two weeks ago, Kerr told reporters that he’d sat down with Kuminga to watch film. They watched Kuminga’s own clips, and they watched clips of Butler. Kerr called Butler “the perfect guy for JK to emulate,” as Butler “just plays fundamental basketball” and “makes the simple play over and over again.”

Kerr has repeatedly said that Kuminga was playing the best basketball of his career leading up to the injury. That stretch included a pair of 34-point games in late December. The Warriors aren’t looking for him to pick up right where he left off, but to fit in to a team that has established a rhythm with Butler in the fold.

In 32 games this season, Kuminga, who will be a restricted free agent this summer, has averaged 16.8 points (on .459/.345/.639 shooting splits), 5.0 rebounds and 2.2 assists in 26 minutes per game. Down the stretch, he doesn’t need to maintain that scoring average, but ideally he’ll improve his efficiency.

2025 NBA picks, March 11 best bets from top model

We’ve got another exciting Western Conference contest on Tuesday’s NBA schedule as the Los Angeles Clippers will visit the New Orleans Pelicans. Los Angeles is 35-29 overall and 13-19 on the road, while New Orleans is 17-48 overall and 11-21 at home. The Pelicans have lost four in a row while the Clippers have won three straight. L.A. won their lone previous meeting of the season, but the Pelicans won six of the previous seven matchups. The Clippers are 33-30-1 against the spread (ATS) in the 2024-25 NBA season, while the Pelicans are 26-38-1 versus the number. Norman Powell (hamstring) and Ben Simmons (knee) are out for L.A., while Kelly Olynyk (rest) is out for New Orleans.

Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Smoothie King Arena in New Orleans, where the Pelicans are 11-21 this season. Los Angeles is favored by 7 points in the latest Pelicans vs. Clippers odds, according to the SportsLine consensus. The over/under is 222.5 points. Los Angeles is at -288 on the money line (risk $288 to win $100), while New Orleans is at +232 (risk $100 to win $232). Before entering any Clippers vs. Pelicans picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 21 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 148-107 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It’s also an outstanding 19-10 (65%) on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Los Angeles vs. New Orleans. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Clippers vs. Pelicans:

Pelicans vs. Clippers spread: Clippers -7
Pelicans vs. Clippers over/under: 222.5 points
Pelicans vs. Clippers money line: Clippers -288, Pelicans +233
Pelicans vs. Clippers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Pelicans vs. Clippers streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Clippers can cover
Los Angeles has won three straight games outright, covering in two of those, while the Pelicans have hit a skid versus the spread. New Orleans is just 1-5 ATS over its last six outings and is 19-28-1 versus the line as an underdog this season, which is the worst underdog spread record in the Western Conference. Outside of spread success, Los Angeles has a major advantage on the defensive side of the ball, ranking fourth in the league in both points allowed per game and defensive rating, while New Orleans ranks in the bottom five of both categories.

The Pels allow the second-highest field goal percentage in the NBA, and they also give up the second-most made 3-pointers per game. Meanwhile, Los Angeles’ offense is discernibly better with Kawhi Leonard on the court, and the two-time NBA Finals MVP isn’t listed on Tuesday’s injury report. He is one of six healthy Clippers averaging in double-figures, with the team receiving a boost from new acquisition, Bogdan Bogdanovic, who is knocking down 43.2% of his 3-pointers over the last seven games. See which team to pick here.

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Why the Pelicans can cover
Despite its spread struggles this season, the Pelicans have managed to cover in four of their last five home games. That includes in a 3-point loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday, in which New Orleans was getting 10.5 points. The Pels hung with the Grizz despite Zion Williamson being out as Trey Murphy III (27 points) was one of six players in double-figures. Williamson isn’t listed on Tuesday’s injury report, but the Clippers will be without their leading scorer in Powell, who averages 23.8 points per game.

The Pelicans will roll out three 20-point scorers with Williamson (24.8), Murphy (21.8) and CJ McCollum (21.4). They can carry the offense, while New Orleans is one of the most active teams defensively as they are one of three squads in the league ranking in the top seven in both steals per game and blocks per game. The Pelicans can take advantage of a Clippers team which can get sloppy on the offensive end as L.A. commits the 10th-most turnovers per game, with James Harden averaging the most turnovers per 100 possessions (6.4) in the NBA. See which team to pick here.

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How to make Clippers vs. Pelicans picks
The model has simulated Pelicans vs. Clippers 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, projecting 224 combined points, and it also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Clippers vs. Pelicans, and which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Pelicans vs. Clippers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 148-107 roll on top-rated NBA picks since last season, and find out.

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